It will take a miracle for automakers to meet upcoming EV mandates.
Six of the states — California, Oregon, Washington, New York, Massachusetts, and Vermont — will start requiring automakers to meet mandates in model year 2026 or calendar year 2025, the memo says. Colorado, New Jersey, Delaware, Rhode Island, New Mexico, and Maryland start mandates for model year 2027.
Starting next year, 35 out of 100 vehicles sold by every automaker in the first six states will need to be ZEVs, the memo says. This will climb to 48 out of 100 vehicles for model year 2027, 51 out of 100 in model year 2028, 68 in 2030, 76 in 2031 and 100 out of 100 in 2035.
“…to comply with the rules, automakers would have to sell half a million fewer vehicles to achieve the required California/177 state ratio in 2026,” the memo says. “And it gets tougher and tougher in each of the coming years as the sales mandates get stricter in every 177 state. By the way, we know what constricting vehicle supply does to vehicle price (see: pandemic).”
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